Great White Games/Pinnacle Entertainment Group

[DanOrc]

Hey all,

In my newbie enthusiasm here, I've put together an Excel sheet about the probabilities of Trait rolls hitting certain numbers. There's a chart of %chance from TNs 1-50 both with and without WD for every die type, and some charts based off that info. There's also a super-spiffy "Compare" sheet that allows you to enter two rolls and automatically generates 2 pie charts and a bar chart comparing them.

I was wondering if there was anyone who'd be interested in taking a look at such a thing and providing some feedback on its accuracy? If so PM me with some contact info and I'll email it to you.


This is the basic formula I used:

S = Number of Sides on Die
A = Minimum number of aces required to make number feasible on die
F = Number of die faces that result in failure for given TN (target number)
P = Probability of hitting TN

P = (1/S) ^A - ( (1/S)^(A+1) * F )

Logically speaking, it's "The chance of success is equal to the probability of all the Aces required happening (which is multiplicative for simultaneous events), minus the possibility of still missing the TN once you've achieved the proper number of Aces to have a shot"

I kind of worked it out myself, and I'd be durned if I could prove it mathematically, but this gave me good numbers and was logically consistent. For the Wild Die:

P2 = Chance for success with Wild Die taken into account
P = Probability of hitting TN with just the regular die
P6 = Probability of hitting the TN with a six sider alone

P2 = P + (1-P)*P6

Or, logically, "The chance to hit with either the regular die or the wild die is equal to the regular die's probability, plus the chance of the d6 succeeding simultaneous with the regular die failing)."

Thanks in advance!

[Clint]

One thing you might do is go to the Savage Worlds Yahoo Group and check out the Files > Game Aides > Savage Statistical Analyses section.

There are sheets with some of the odds there to see how they match up to the Excel sheet.
_________________
Clint Black
Savage Worlds Core Rules Brand Manager

www.peginc.com

[DanOrc]

I knew someone must have done something like this already, but I had no idea where.

Was fun to do myself too anyway.

[DanOrc]

I'm pending authorization with Savage Worlds Yahoo Group, so I look forward to checking that out.

I did check it out with Savagepedia's statistics section under Gaming Aids, and was pleased to see that all my numbers tied out with theirs exactly, so that was encouraging http://www.hackslash.net/?p=14.