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joshuaslater
Seasoned
Joined: 10 Jan 2008
Posts: 109
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 Posted: Tue Dec 30, 2008 10:33 am Post subject: d14 and d16. |
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I've bought a few wacky dice lately. d5. d7. etc. The d14 and d16 seem like nice increments of two in keeping with the 4,6,8,10,12 vibe of Savage Worlds.
I haven't tried anything like this, but wonder if those more math inclined have any thoughts on this over the d12 plus 1,2, etc.
Would it make sense to use these in the course of regular play, or maybe use them for a special item/artefact?
D'oh!! Please move this post to the correct section. I think it's general chat I was aiming for. Double one's. |
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Jordan Peacock
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Joined: 08 Sep 2007
Posts: 2304
Location: Orlando, Florida
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| Posted: Tue Dec 30, 2008 11:34 am Post subject: |
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I would be interested in seeing the statistical impact of such a thing.
On the one hand, as die types get bigger, the chance to ace gets smaller, so there's a certain "advantage" to staying at d12 and just adding a flat bonus.
On the other hand, that flat bonus isn't multiplied by acing. I am guessing that the "average" increase by die step would tend to be slightly more than +1 per step, so this represents a slight downgrade.
Also, since the die type never increases, your chances of avoiding critical failure or botching never decrease.
So, what does a 7-sided die look like? I can imagine a 5-sider just being a 10-sider with the "1-5" numbers repeated. (Similar to the old "10-sider" dice that were really 20-siders with 1-10 repeated.) For a 7-sider ... I'm imagining a faceted "cylinder" shape that happens to have 7 facets, and tapered ends so it's not going to land on one end or the other? (Kind of like the "football" die from Battle Ball.)
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Cutter XXIII
Legendary
Joined: 27 Sep 2005
Posts: 2758
Location: I dwell in the Village of Rock, MD
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| Posted: Tue Dec 30, 2008 11:41 am Post subject: |
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Heh...d4, d5, d6, d7, d8, d10, d12, d14, and d16.
Sounds like Savage Worlds: EXTREME Edition to me! 
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Matthew Cutter
Deadlands Big Bug (Brand Manager)
Pinnacle Entertainment Group, Inc. |
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Jordan Peacock
Legendary
Joined: 08 Sep 2007
Posts: 2304
Location: Orlando, Florida
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| Posted: Tue Dec 30, 2008 12:08 pm Post subject: |
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| Cutter XXIII wrote: | Heh...d4, d5, d6, d7, d8, d10, d12, d14, and d16.
Sounds like Savage Worlds: EXTREME Edition to me! |
And on the other end ... d2? I mean, you know, a die to roll for those REALLY incompetent characters.
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Cutter XXIII
Legendary
Joined: 27 Sep 2005
Posts: 2758
Location: I dwell in the Village of Rock, MD
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| Posted: Tue Dec 30, 2008 12:24 pm Post subject: |
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GM: Okay, Mr. d2. Flip a coin.
Player: Flip a coin? I only have a 50/50 chance?
GM: This is the EXTREME version.
Ideally, the word "EXTREME" should always be at top volume and in a Movie Trailer Guy voice. 
Seeing as I'm hopeless with probabilities, I'm just providing some humor until the real mathematicians show up. Is there any significant statistical difference between, say, a d5 and a d6? Enough to make using them worth it?
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Matthew Cutter
Deadlands Big Bug (Brand Manager)
Pinnacle Entertainment Group, Inc. |
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Clint
Site Admin
Joined: 13 May 2003
Posts: 16176
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| Posted: Tue Dec 30, 2008 1:10 pm Post subject: |
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| Jordan Peacock wrote: | | And on the other end ... d2? I mean, you know, a die to roll for those REALLY incompetent characters. |
Actually, a d2 in a system with acing isn't really so much worse than a d4 to be worth it.
Odds of rolling a 4 on both - 25%
Odds of rolling an 8 on both - 6.25%
The only real variance is at a TN 2 and every 4 point increment thereafter (6, 10, 14, etc...) where they d4 has a 50% better chance. Otherwise, they are really the same.
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Clint Black
Savage Worlds Core Rules Brand Manager
www.peginc.com |
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Clint
Site Admin
Joined: 13 May 2003
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| Posted: Tue Dec 30, 2008 1:33 pm Post subject: |
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| Jordan Peacock wrote: | | On the other hand, that flat bonus isn't multiplied by acing. I am guessing that the "average" increase by die step would tend to be slightly more than +1 per step, so this represents a slight downgrade. |
Actually, the average increase by going up a die type including acing is slightly less than a full +1.
d12 average = 7.09
d14 average = 8.08
d16 average = 9.07
In addition, for a Wild Card, its even less effective. A Trait at Professional or Expert with a d12+1 or +2 adds that bonus to the higher of the Trait die or the Wild Die, so it is a bonus to both dice really, not just one as a direct increase in the die type would be.
Honestly, before even worrying about the math, my concern would be actual play. Integrating new atypical die types generally means telling the players who use them they have to buy those dice to play. Unless a rule was truly needed, I couldn't see doing that myself (and even then, I'd probably buy the dice for them).
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Clint Black
Savage Worlds Core Rules Brand Manager
www.peginc.com |
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Jordan Peacock
Legendary
Joined: 08 Sep 2007
Posts: 2304
Location: Orlando, Florida
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| Posted: Tue Dec 30, 2008 2:18 pm Post subject: |
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| Cutter XXIII wrote: | | Seeing as I'm hopeless with probabilities, I'm just providing some humor until the real mathematicians show up. Is there any significant statistical difference between, say, a d5 and a d6? Enough to make using them worth it? |
Well, even if there were a difference, I wonder how much it'd mess up the whole system to try to squeeze it in there. (As in, if it takes an Advance to improve from d4 to d6 ... is it "half an Advance" to go from d4 to d5?)
Anyway, I'm not seriously going to advocate the addition of more die types.  And I figured "d2" would cause a mess. (For further proof that this system is best left within a limited range ... let's go down to *d1*! I roll my d1 ... and I get an infinite result *AND* critical failure [botch optional, depending on wild die] at the same time, every time! My PC's cosmic incompetence blows up the universe! Woot! )
If I had my preference in randomization method, I would have kept the old Deadlands Classic method of rolling *more* dice to represent more skill (and taking the highest result, and allowing for "acing") ... but all of those dice would be six-siders. And then I could retire my piles of polygon dice, and pick up cheap packs of six-siders (as if I didn't have enough already) at the department store.
If I recall correctly, that's basically what "Brave New World" did. (Too bad that game floated off into obscurity! It was an interesting setting, too. And it had Paul Bonner cover artwork. But now I'm just digressing WAYYYYY off.)
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Clint
Site Admin
Joined: 13 May 2003
Posts: 16176
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| Posted: Tue Dec 30, 2008 3:09 pm Post subject: |
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| Jordan Peacock wrote: | | If I had my preference in randomization method, I would have kept the old Deadlands Classic method of rolling *more* dice to represent more skill (and taking the highest result, and allowing for "acing") ... but all of those dice would be six-siders. And then I could retire my piles of polygon dice, and pick up cheap packs of six-siders (as if I didn't have enough already) at the department store. |
You know, that's not hard to do. Instead of d4 to d12, just go from 1d6 to 5d6, taking the best.
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Clint Black
Savage Worlds Core Rules Brand Manager
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Jordan Peacock
Legendary
Joined: 08 Sep 2007
Posts: 2304
Location: Orlando, Florida
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| Posted: Tue Dec 30, 2008 4:04 pm Post subject: |
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| Clint wrote: | | You know, that's not hard to do. Instead of d4 to d12, just go from 1d6 to 5d6, taking the best. |
I was thinking of something along those lines, but I figured I might have to tweak the base TN and raises, and I haven't really done the statistical analysis to figure out the full implications. (But then, I suppose the only way to be sure would be to actually playtest it.)
Eh, maybe I should try writing something up, just for fun. I'd need to tackle things like Critical Failure, new rules for Botching (which would probably be just like the Deadlands Classic rules for that), and see if base numbers for the TN, Parry, Toughness, etc., need to be tweaked.
Based on a previous exercise I did, the "average" roll for a handful of six-siders would be somewhere in the department of (rounded off):
1 die: 4
2 dice: 6
3 dice: 7
4 dice: 8
5 dice: 8
6 dice: 9
7 dice: 9
8 dice: 10
9 dice: 10
10 dice: 10
So, with a single die, there's a 50% chance of success, and a 14% chance (if I did the math right) chance of getting a raise, assuming a TN of 4, and raises every 4 points.
Also, I'd need to figure out how to differentiate Wild Cards from Extras, aside from the latters' tendency to fall down quicker, since there wouldn't be a Wild Die anymore.
And ... argh! If I'm rolling one or more dice per skill resolution, then I no longer have the luxury of being able to grab a handful of dice (each die representing an individual Extra's skill attempt) and deciding, en masse, how many of them succeed/fail at diving for cover from the Burst template, etc. So, I can see right away that the existing system still has its appeal, no matter how much I might be tempted to tinker with it.
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Claire
Seasoned
Joined: 16 Jan 2008
Posts: 166
Location: UK
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| Posted: Tue Dec 30, 2008 4:10 pm Post subject: |
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| Jordan Peacock wrote: | (For further proof that this system is best left within a limited range ... let's go down to *d1*! I roll my d1 ... and I get an infinite result *AND* critical failure [botch optional, depending on wild die] at the same time, every time! My PC's cosmic incompetence blows up the universe! Woot! )
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 Excellent suggestion!!
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Clint
Site Admin
Joined: 13 May 2003
Posts: 16176
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| Posted: Tue Dec 30, 2008 5:59 pm Post subject: |
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| Jordan Peacock wrote: | | And ... argh! If I'm rolling one or more dice per skill resolution, then I no longer have the luxury of being able to grab a handful of dice (each die representing an individual Extra's skill attempt) and deciding, en masse, how many of them succeed/fail at diving for cover from the Burst template, etc. So, I can see right away that the existing system still has its appeal, no matter how much I might be tempted to tinker with it. |
That is the main issue. It can be easily done (TNs don't really need to be changed), but it will slow down the game significantly.
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Clint Black
Savage Worlds Core Rules Brand Manager
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joshuaslater
Seasoned
Joined: 10 Jan 2008
Posts: 109
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| Posted: Wed Dec 31, 2008 10:54 am Post subject: |
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I'll have to see how the d14 and d16 feel in actual play. A strange item only. The chances of aceing or fumbling decrease, but I wonder if it would reflect some things better.
I have virtually no mathematical brain activity to speak of. |
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Theophage
Novice
Joined: 14 Jan 2007
Posts: 66
Location: Tucson, AZ
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| Posted: Wed Dec 31, 2008 1:21 pm Post subject: |
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| Jordan Peacock wrote: |
Also, I'd need to figure out how to differentiate Wild Cards from Extras, aside from the latters' tendency to fall down quicker, since there wouldn't be a Wild Die anymore.
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You could still have a Wild Die, an extra d6 for Wild Cards would still be helpful. You could even make it a different color to distinguish it.
Another idea for using just d6 (but not rolling several of them) is to use the following: d6-1 = d4, d6 = d6, d6+1 = d8, d6+2 = d10, d6+3 = d12, etc. possibly with a rule calling a 1 an auto-failure in any case.
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DanOrc
Novice
Joined: 03 Dec 2008
Posts: 99
Location: Boston area, MA
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| Posted: Wed Dec 31, 2008 2:06 pm Post subject: More info than you'd ever need |
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Wellp,
For my own entertainment (and because if I got any geekier I'd explode), I had done up a statistical Excel sheet allowing you to compare two SW rolls (with modifiers and different die types, or even no WD at all) and have it dynamically update graphs in real-time. I've double-checked the results against existing data, and it's checked out, but I have to warn it's not Clint-or-really-anyone-other-than-me-tested.
Since I had generalized the formulas, I can give complete statistical results from any die type, including d14s, d16s, d7s, etc, with a little formula twiddling, from TNs from 1 to 50.
Comparing the d12+1 to the d14, the results are about what I'd expect. The d12+1 is almost strictly better.
Here's a table comparison of important numbers, with TNs going down the left column:
| Code: |
d12+1 d14
CF 1.39% 1.19%
4 94.44% 89.29%
8 58.33% 56.94%
12 21.3% 23.61%
16 8.67% 7.93%
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To summarize, the d12+1 has a 0.2% greater chance of a Critical Failure (which you would never notice in a real world situation), with a greater than 5% decrease in hitting key lower TNs such as 4 (which you would most definitely notice over time). The d14 also shows a modest 2.61% chance of getting two raises, but this is mainly due to "ace overlap".
Generally, yeah, I can go ahead and say that a d14 is much worse than a d12+1 statistically speaking. But the d14 is certainly shinier and niftier!
If anyone wants to check out the sheet I have and play with the stats themselves, including for the d14 and d16, please send me a PM. I'd love additional feedback/error checking, and would be more than happy to mail it to whomever or post it somewhere.
It is too nifty not to be shared.
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joshuaslater
Seasoned
Joined: 10 Jan 2008
Posts: 109
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| Posted: Fri Jan 02, 2009 11:29 am Post subject: |
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My brain may explode from your mathematical prowess. Thanks for the breakdown!!
I'm still thinking of using the dice, 'cause well, I bought them, but only for a special item for a wild card character to use. They'll get their wild die.
Seeing the numbers you've cranked out really helps. |
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DanOrc
Novice
Joined: 03 Dec 2008
Posts: 99
Location: Boston area, MA
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| Posted: Fri Jan 02, 2009 1:00 pm Post subject: No Problem |
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Glad I could help!
One, don't take it as gospel until someone else looks 'em over, but I'm 98% sure it's right, and the numbers fit my intuitive feel for the situation.
Two, yeah, definitely go ahead and do it.The 5% for TN4 is big over the long term, but for a short one-shot or what have you, it shouldn't be too noticeable. I'm sure you and your players will be happier with the new die as a change of pace. With a small sample size, any difference will be pretty subtle.
Have fun!
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jeff
Veteran
Joined: 13 May 2003
Posts: 719
Location: milwaukee, wi
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| Posted: Fri Jan 02, 2009 1:53 pm Post subject: |
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In the same vein, we could expand past the d16 to the d20, d24, and the ever popular d30.
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fanchergw
Heroic
Joined: 13 May 2003
Posts: 1475
Location: Seattle area
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| Posted: Sat Jan 03, 2009 1:51 pm Post subject: |
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I've always thought it would be fun to buy a bunch of d14 and d16 and add them to the SW system as an experiment and see how it went. If I were to do so, I would increase the "average" die to d8 and adjust the starting attribute points and skill points accordingly. Wild die would stay at d6, for simplicity - though making it a d10 might be an option.
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ChoppedInHalf
Novice
Joined: 04 Jul 2006
Posts: 18
Location: Austin, TX
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| Posted: Sun Jan 04, 2009 4:52 pm Post subject: |
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Ooops. I didn't see this thread when I wrote mine.
Eh. I suppose they're different enough to stand on their own.
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